IPM Take
This is precision prevention in its most practical form. Cardiovascular risk tools decide who receives earlier intervention, stronger treatment and closer follow-up. If the model is calibrated on European populations, it may misclassify risk elsewhere. SCORE2-LAC matters because it makes equity technical: a prevention pathway is only fair if the risk equation reflects the population it is used on.
Executive Summary
On 24 April 2026, ESC and the Inter-American Society of Cardiology presented a preliminary SCORE2-LAC model at ESC Preventive Cardiology 2026. SCORE2 is used in ESC guidelines and was developed using European population data. SCORE2-LAC aims to recalibrate cardiovascular risk prediction for Latin America and the Caribbean using local and regional data, where cardiovascular disease burden remains high and region-specific prediction models are limited. ESC states that average risk factor levels and mortality data from 32 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean have been incorporated, with further data from Brazil and external validation still expected.
Why it matters
- Clinicians: Need risk tools that estimate cardiovascular risk accurately for the populations they serve, not only tools imported from other regions.
- Public authorities: Should treat locally calibrated risk prediction as part of prevention infrastructure, especially when screening and treatment thresholds depend on estimated risk.
- Patients / advocates: Better local calibration could reduce both missed prevention opportunities and unnecessary treatment caused by poor risk estimation.
Previously, many cardiovascular prevention decisions relied on risk scores developed in high-income or European populations. Those tools can be useful, but they may not capture local differences in risk factor distribution, disease incidence, mortality patterns, health-system access or population diversity.
What has changed is the effort to build a region-specific model. SCORE2-LAC is being developed through ESC’s Cardiovascular Risk Collaboration with SIAC to better reflect cardiovascular risk in Latin America and the Caribbean. ESC states that the final SCORE2-LAC results and publication are expected at ESC Congress 2026, which means the current signal should be treated as preliminary rather than routine-ready.
The affected population is broad: adults whose preventive treatment decisions depend on estimated cardiovascular risk. The implementation issue is direct. If risk prediction is wrong, prevention is mistargeted. Some people may be overtreated, while others who need earlier intervention may be missed.
For IPM, this is exactly the point of personalised prevention: not more complicated tools for their own sake, but locally valid tools that make prevention fairer and more accurate.
